A comparative study of the household sector's demand for electricity in England and Wales and in Greece, and the implications for the forecasting of electricity demand

Abstract

This thesis is concerned with the theoretical analysis of household demand for electricity and its empirical investigation for England & Wales and Greece. In an introductory chapter the methodological issues and particular problems which have motivated this work are spelt out. These objectives are organically connected with the problematic areas in the field, which are brought out by a review of the literature dealt with in Chapter Two. In Chapter Three the nature o f household demand for electricity is explored. This leads eventually to the conclusion that the most appropriate approach is to regard household demand for electricity in each main application as the product of two entities, namely the stock of appliances and the «intensity of the irutilization and to analyse separately the functional determinants of each entity. Thus, the disaggregate two-stage methodological approach is form ally introduced. In Chapters Four and Five the above methodology is applied, so far as data limitations permit, to the analysis of household demand for electricity in England & Wales. In Chapter Six the aggregate household demand for electricity in Greece is analysed. In particular an attempt is made to study demand by main region. Although only a crude approximation to a full regional treatment is possible, this disaggregation is of great importance because of the very different stages of development in different parts of the country. The variability of electricity supply and the simultaneous determination of the demand for and the price of electricity are examined in some depth. Finally Chapter Seven provides an outline of the main conclusions of this thesis, with particular emphasis on their practical implications in relation to the needs of electricity supply systems in assessing and forecasting demand.